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Stronger In a Range


Weaker In A Range


Ending The Week On A Soft Note


Bearish Risk Growing


Stronger, But Still Vulnerable


SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

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The combination of U.S. inflation data and ECB resulted in some EUR/JPY volatility Thursday, but other than that the rate remained heavy. It spiked towards resistance from Jun 4 high of Y133.81 but failed to pierce the level and retreated steadily thereafter. Implied vols fell broadly after the ECB decision & Pres Lagarde's presser.

  • BBG spoke to officials familiar with ECB deliberations, who noted that policymakers differed over the amount of bon-buying needed during the summer, when liquidity in financial markets will be thinner. Some policymakers were also said to have flagged upside risks to inflation in the eurozone.
  • French Pres Macron told reporters ahead of the G7 summit that the Brexit deal signed with the UK in December is non-negotiable and brushed away suggestions to the contrary as "not serious".
  • Final Spanish CPI, quarterly Italian unemployment headline the EZ docket, with speeches from ECB's Holzmann & Knot also due.
  • EUR/JPY last operates at Y133.16, slightly higher on the day. A clean break above Jun 4 high of Y133.81 would allow bulls to take aim at Y134.13, the high print of Jun 1. Conversely, a slide through Jun 7 low of Y132.89 would bring May 24 low of Y132.52 into play.