Free Trial

Steady After Yesterday’s Bull-Steepening

US TSYS

TYZ3 is currently trading at 109-18, +0-01 from NY closing levels.

  • Yesterday US tsys bull-steepened, with yields 3-12bps lower across benchmarks.
  • The driving force was Governor Waller leaning dovish by touting potential cut timings. In the Q&A, Waller suggested that if inflation continues to cool for maybe three to five months, the Fed could lower the policy rate.
  • Governor Bowman’s reiteration that she continues to expect the need for a further hike held little sway.
  • Fed Fund futures priced an additional 10bps of easing for next year, taking it to a cumulative 100bps.
  • The 10-year fell 7bps to 4.32%, not seen since September, despite the cheapening impulse from the largest tail (2.1bps) for a 7Y tsy auction since Nov 2022.
  • Today sees the second Q3 GDP release including core PCE before Fedspeak from Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’24 voter) on financial stability and the Fed’s Beige Book.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.