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Steady Ahead Of US CPI Data Tomorrow

GOLD

Gold is slightly firmer in the Asia-Pac session, following a relatively unchanged closing on Monday. Traders are carefully assessing the support provided by declining US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar against expectations the Federal Reserve will pursue additional monetary tightening.

  • US tsys finished near their best levels of the NY session, with benchmark yields 1-12bp lower, ahead of US CPI data later this week and the start of the US earnings season.
  • US tsys received a boost thanks to the New York Fed's survey on inflation expectations, which showed a decrease in the one-year outlook for inflation. In June, the outlook fell to 3.83% from the previous month's 4.07%, marking the third consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
  • Less hawkish headlines from Fed Daly, Mester and Barr further supported the downward movement in yields. Barr expressed the belief that there is still "more work to do but close to the end," while Daly emphasised that risks are becoming less imbalanced, making decisions more challenging and reliant on additional data.
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