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Steady As Busy Week Looms

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries are steady in the face of stronger equity futures, as we begin one of the busiest weeks in recent memory (election Tuesday, Tsy refunding announcement Wednesday, FOMC Thursday, payrolls Friday).

  • The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1525%, 5-Yr is down 1bps at 0.3749%, 10-Yr is down 1.2bps at 0.862%, and 30-Yr is down 0.1bps at 1.6591%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 0.5/32 at 138-7.5 (L: 138-04.5/ H: 138-09.5).
  • Little change in outlook on Tuesday's election, though polls over the last few days have if anything been more friendly to Trump than Biden. Looking at one metric: PredictIt odds of Democrat sweep at 52% vs mid-high 50s last week, and highs in the 60s in early October.
  • Our FOMC preview (which incorporates a heavy portion of election material) should be out later today, and we sent out our refunding preview last week, let us know if you haven't seen.
  • ISM Manufacturing at 1000ET is Monday's data highlight, preceded by final PMI at 0945ET. Sep construction spending at 1000ET.
  • $105B in 13-/26-week bill auction at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~ $1.750B of 20-30Yr Tsys.
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