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Steady Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Bely Other Survey Increases

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed’s business inflation expectations for the year-ahead held steady at 2.3% in the June survey.
  • This survey, which specifically looks at the mean expected unit cost changes over the next twelve months is in contrast to the particularly notable strength seen today in six-month ahead prices paid and received metrics in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey (highest since Jun’22 and Apr’22 respectively).
  • Having printed 2.3% for the last three monthly readings, it also offers a softer relative picture to that in consumer surveys where U.Mich inflation expectations for example have pushed higher since a recent bottoming in March (1Y up from 2.9% to a preliminary 3.3% in June, 5-10Y up from 2.8% to a preliminary 3.1%).
  • For context though, the 2.3% BIE reading remains above the 1.9% averaged in 2019.

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