Steady Post-Debate, Pre-Fed Speakers/Chicago PMI

Treasuries have been fairly rangebound as last night's Trump-Biden debate is assessed, with the dollar stronger and equity futures paring the previous two sessions' gains.

• Our political risk analyst expects the debate to ultimately have little impact on the election outcome, though notable that Biden's implied betting odds of winning have increased a bit overnight (Betfair from 56% to 61%, a six-week high). Attention will be paid to any progress in the Pelosi-Mnuchin talks over COVID stimulus.
• Front TYs trading within a 5 tick range, bottoming out in Asia-Pac hours before consolidating a little higher in European trade - last down 2/32 at 139-23 (L: 139-20.5 / H: 139-25.5), so-so volumes (200k TYZ0s traded).
• Long end underperforming: the 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.123%, 5-Yr is down 0.3bps at 0.2516%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.6512%, and 30-Yr is up 1.4bps at 1.4285%.
• In data, ADP private payrolls at 0815ET, 3rd reading of Q2 GDP at 0830ET, and MNI Chicago PMI for September at 0945ET.
• Fair number of Fed speakers today: 0830ET sees Richmond Fed Pres Barkin on BBG TV; Minn's Kashkari at 1100ET; Dallas' Kaplan at 1300ET; Gov Bowman at 1340ET; StL's Bullard at 1600ET; and Kaplan again at 1800ET.
• In supply, $55B in 105-/154-day bill sales at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$6.025B in 4.5-7Y Tsys.