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Steady USD/Asia Trends Mostly, Although Baht Continues To Rally

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly range bound as the market awaits the US NFP print later. Spot THB and IDR are modestly firmer. USD/CNH is steady despite stronger export growth figures although import growth cooled. The RBI held steady as expected. Still to come today is the Taiwan trade figures for May. Next week we should have China new loans/credit figures as well as May inflation data. The BoT decision is also due.

  • USD/CNH is little changed, last near 7.2575/80. Onshore spot is also very steady. Local equities are weaker as the May bounce continues to get unwound. We had mixed May trade figures, better exports but slower import growth. The currency didn't react a great deal to the print.
  • Onshore South Korean markets returned today, with local equities playing catch up, up 1% for the Kospi. The 1 month USD/KRW NDF is higher though back to 1366/67, off around 0.25% from end Thursday levels in NY. This puts us back close to the 20-day EMA.
  • As expected, the RBI left rates on hold at 6.50%. There were two dovish dissenters, but Governor Das's press conference suggested the core view for the central bank is to wait until food inflation trends become clearly int he next few months. The central bank did nudge higher its current financial year growth projection. USD/INR is very steady in the first part of Friday trade, holding under 83.50 for now.
  • USD/IDR is lower, back to 16220/25, off 0.20%, with BI intervention efforts in recent sessions perhaps starting to gain greater traction. The JCI is 0.50% lower and now trades at ytd lows though.
  • USD/THB has slipped further, now down to 36.35/40. Baht bulls will eye a test of the 100-day EMA near 36.24, we are now sub the 50-day, which is back close to 36.50.A stronger than expected May CPI print, albeit for the headline, should lean against a BoT shift next week.

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