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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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May export data came in weaker than expected. The m/m printing at -14.6%, versus -1.9% forecast. This is the steepest m/m fall going back to 2012, but the m/m readings can be volatile and we have had positive outcomes in the past two months. The y/y print fell to -14.7% , also well below consensus estimates (-7.7%). Electronic exports also remain weak in y/y terms, down -27.2%, versus -23.3% prior.
- in terms of the detail, weakness was evident in pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals in y/y terms. By country, exports to China and the US were positive in y/y terms but negative elsewhere, particularly in parts of Asia, which are tech sensitive. This fits with the ongoing tech export headwinds in these economies.
- Despite the weaker export headline result, y/y momentum smoothed (by a 3 month average) is above its recent trough point, see the chart below, overlaid with y/y SGD NEER changes.
- Still, with global headwinds still present, it may be a stretch to expect a sharp turn higher in the next few months.
Fig 1: Singapore Exports (3mth moving average) & SGD NEER Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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