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US TSYS: Steepening Accelerates As 2s10s Starts To Eye YTD Highs

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries sit twist steeper, with the pace of steepening accelerating over the past hour as the front end firms a touch but the long-end sell-off continues unabated following yesterday’s clearance of 4.50% for 10Y yields.
  • Cash yields sit between 3bp lower (2s) and 3bp higher (30s).
  • 10Y yields have seen session highs of 4.5401% (currently 4.534%, +2.0bp) for fresh highs since May.
  • 2s10s at 21bps (+5bp) starts to eye year-to-date highs of 24bp seen in late September.
  • Fed Funds futures have marginally pared their hawkish shift on yesterday’s FOMC but still only price 36bp of cuts to end-2025 vs an equivalent closer to 49bp pre-FOMC.
  • TYH5 has touched new recent lows of 108-24 (currently 108-26, -06+) on solid early volumes of 360k. Having cleared a key short-term support at 109-02+ (Nov 15 low), it opens 108-12+ (1.382 proj of Oct 1-14-16 price swing) after which lies 108-00 (both 1.00 proj and round number).
  • Today’s data focus is on the third release of Q3 GDP/PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims data covering a payrolls reference period for initial claims. 
US 2s10s - Source: Bloomberg
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  • Treasuries sit twist steeper, with the pace of steepening accelerating over the past hour as the front end firms a touch but the long-end sell-off continues unabated following yesterday’s clearance of 4.50% for 10Y yields.
  • Cash yields sit between 3bp lower (2s) and 3bp higher (30s).
  • 10Y yields have seen session highs of 4.5401% (currently 4.534%, +2.0bp) for fresh highs since May.
  • 2s10s at 21bps (+5bp) starts to eye year-to-date highs of 24bp seen in late September.
  • Fed Funds futures have marginally pared their hawkish shift on yesterday’s FOMC but still only price 36bp of cuts to end-2025 vs an equivalent closer to 49bp pre-FOMC.
  • TYH5 has touched new recent lows of 108-24 (currently 108-26, -06+) on solid early volumes of 360k. Having cleared a key short-term support at 109-02+ (Nov 15 low), it opens 108-12+ (1.382 proj of Oct 1-14-16 price swing) after which lies 108-00 (both 1.00 proj and round number).
  • Today’s data focus is on the third release of Q3 GDP/PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims data covering a payrolls reference period for initial claims. 
US 2s10s - Source: Bloomberg