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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- According to the NBP website, three MPC members - Eugeniusz Gatnar, Lukasz Hardt and Kamil Zubelewicz - voted to increase the required reserve ratio to 3.5% on the MP meeting on April 7 (vs. 6 voted to keep its steady at 0.5%, Sura did not attend the meeting).
- In recent weeks, we have also seen that disagreements over ST rates trajectory have been rising among NBP policymakers amid growing concerns over inflation risks.
- While the majority of policymakers aim to keep interest rates steady until at least the end of the MPC term (in Q1 2022) to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible, a rising number of rate settlers have been in favor of an earlier hike.
- The market has recently been pricing in an early move from NBP (a potential 10bps hike this summer), which partly explains the strong momentum on PLN against major crosses.
- The chart below shows that Poland 2Y10Y yield curve has significantly steepened since the start of the year (by 50bps to 1.71%), pushing the momentum on financials stocks.
- Poland Financials experienced the biggest turnaround in the EM market, up 23% YtD following a 28% drop in 2020 and are still 'cheap' based on a price-to-book relative valuation metrics.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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