MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Sticky Service Price Pressures Support Cautious Monetary Policy Stance

BRAZIL
  • The larger-than-expected 0.3% m/m increase in IPCA-15 inflation in the first half of July was partly due to upside surprises in airfares and vehicle services. On a 3mma basis, underlying services inflation ticked up to 4.3% y/y, while core underlying industrials slowed to 2.1% y/y, from 2.4%. Going forward, analysts expect the services component to remain under pressure, while industrial goods inflation could pick up due to the weak exchange rate.
  • Today’s data support the case for the Copom to stay on hold next week and over the coming months, as policymakers strive to re-anchor inflation expectations. Against this backdrop, USDBRL remains 0.3% lower today around 5.64, with next resistance at 5.7134 and support at 5.4119, the 50-day EMA. Meanwhile, DI swap rates remain higher on the day, with 1-2year yields up around 12bp.
  • The next Copom meeting is scheduled for July 31, with analysts expecting the Selic rate to remain at 10.50%.
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