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Still Close To Five Fed Cuts Through March-Sept

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound some of yesterday’s gain but maintain a climb from Friday’s close to sit 3-6bp higher for March meetings onwards.
  • It’s more than reversed the net decline seen after Friday’s core PCE at 1.9% annualized over six months, with five of the past six months at or below the M/M pace consistent with 2%.
  • It nevertheless leaves 24bp cumulative cuts for March, 99bp for July and 156bp for Dec – see table.
  • The next scheduled Fedspeak comes with Barkin (’24) and the FOMC minutes on Jan 3.

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