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Still Lagging Broader USD Weakness, BSP Up Later +25bps expected

PHP

USD/PHP is close to unchanged for the session, the pair last just above 54.50. Earlier dips sub 54.40 were supported. We do remain comfortably below highs from yesterday around the 54.70/75 region, but the peso is lagging USD weakness seen elsewhere in the region. The 1 month NDF is slightly above NY closing levels, last around 54.45/50.

  • As a result, the PHP has slipped back to middle of the pack in terms of month to date gains against the USD (+1.49%), with baht +3.69% and KRW +3.49% the current front runners.
  • Local equities are weaker, the PCOMP down by 0.60% at this stage, although weaker equities elsewhere in the region is not preventing currency gains for those respective currencies.
  • A little later on is the BSP decision (see our preview here), with a +25bps hike widely expected, which is also our base case.
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