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Still Too Early To Predict June Rate Hike

CZECHIA
  • Implied vol on CZK has been surging in the past week following Ales Michl’s nomination as the new CNB governor (starting June).
  • Michl announced that he expects to propose Czech rate stability for ‘some time’, which led to some CZK depreciation before starting to retrace higher following CNB comments on FX interventions.
  • Interestingly, STIR market still prices in more hikes in the coming meetings, with the FRA 6Mx9M currently trading at 6.80%.
  • BNP Paribas recently commented that Czech rates could peak at 7%.
  • Governor Rusnk mentioned in a conference yesterday that it is ‘still too early’ to predict Czech rate decision in June, but he expects a debate on the size of the hike at the next meeting.
  • Ukraine’s application to join the European Union will be a top priority for the Czech Republic when it takes over the bloc’s rotating presidency from July, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said (BBG).
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