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STIR: 25bp Nov Cut Broadly Priced On Last Day Before FOMC Blackout

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0-1bp lower on the day out to mid-2025 as they on net ebb lower to extend yesterday’s decline and leave a rate path close to where it started the week.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 110bp June.
  • Data headlines today’s docket with preliminary durable goods orders before the finalized U.Mich consumer survey.
  • In the last day before the FOMC blackout period, today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak comes from Collins (’25 voter) in a fireside chat. She said Oct 8 that rate cuts should be careful and data-based whilst balancing two-risks and being attentive to both mandates. She also viewed recent data as showing the labor market in a good place overall. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0-1bp lower on the day out to mid-2025 as they on net ebb lower to extend yesterday’s decline and leave a rate path close to where it started the week.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 43bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 110bp June.
  • Data headlines today’s docket with preliminary durable goods orders before the finalized U.Mich consumer survey.
  • In the last day before the FOMC blackout period, today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak comes from Collins (’25 voter) in a fireside chat. She said Oct 8 that rate cuts should be careful and data-based whilst balancing two-risks and being attentive to both mandates. She also viewed recent data as showing the labor market in a good place overall.