STIR: 28bps of Cuts Priced Through Dec Meeting, Spanish Inflation Due at 0800GMT

ECB-dated OIS price 29bps of easing through next month’s meeting ahead of the November flash inflation round. That sees the implied probability of a 50bp cut fall to ~15%, down from almost 60% in the immediate aftermath of last week’s flash PMIs.

• Executive Board member Schnabel’s hawkish leaning interview with Bloomberg drove most of yesterday’s hawkish front-end repricing.
• Meanwhile, the hawkish National Bank of Belgium Governor Wunsch also stated his preference for “gradual” cuts in an interview with Nikkei Asia overnight (which we assume to be consistent with a 25bp cutting pace).
• ECB President Lagarde’s interview with the FT was relatively light in terms of monetary policy implications. She re-iterated Schnabel’s view that “the actual net impact [of US tariffs] on inflation is uncertain at this point”.
• There are 147bps of easing priced through the end of 2025, within yesterday’s range.
• Euribor futures are +0.5 to +2.0 ticks through the blues.
• Spanish flash inflation is due at 0800GMT/0900CET, with German state-level data scheduled for 0900GMT. MNI's Eurozone inflation preview is here.
• The EC’s Sentiment Survey and ECB money/credit data is also due today.
• Note that the UK Thanksgiving holiday may limit volumes throughout the session.