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STIR: 35bp Cut Priced For Nov With ADP Eyed

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates continue to broadly hold increases seen earlier in the week, holding above levels seen prior to Powell’s NABE address Monday and with a surge in oil futures on Middle East geopolitical developments helping offset some softer data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 35.5bp Nov, 71bp Dec, 102bp Jan and 166bp June.
  • Today’s docket likely sees most attention on ADP employment with most Fedspeak appearances seeing limited scope for mon pol discussions. We watch Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (’24 voter) in the off chance of any relevant remarks having not publicly spoken since starting her role on Aug 21.
  • Barkin (’24) is set to talk on mon pol but has recently spoken on the need for a two-phase approach to easing policy. “With inflation and unemployment being so close to normal levels, it's okay to dial back the level of restraint, somewhat...I'm not yet ready to declare victory on inflation. And so I wouldn't dial it back all the way" to neutral – AP interview published Sep 26.  
  •  
  • 0900ET – Hammack (’24) welcome remarks at Fed’s Minorities in Banking forum (no text)
  • 1005ET – Musalem (’25) welcome remarks at Community Banking conf (text only)
  • 1100ET – Bowman (voter) speech at Community Banking conf. (text only)
  • 1215ET – Barkin (‘25) gives speech on “Why Not Declare Victory?” (text + Q&A)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates continue to broadly hold increases seen earlier in the week, holding above levels seen prior to Powell’s NABE address Monday and with a surge in oil futures on Middle East geopolitical developments helping offset some softer data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 35.5bp Nov, 71bp Dec, 102bp Jan and 166bp June.
  • Today’s docket likely sees most attention on ADP employment with most Fedspeak appearances seeing limited scope for mon pol discussions. We watch Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (’24 voter) in the off chance of any relevant remarks having not publicly spoken since starting her role on Aug 21.
  • Barkin (’24) is set to talk on mon pol but has recently spoken on the need for a two-phase approach to easing policy. “With inflation and unemployment being so close to normal levels, it's okay to dial back the level of restraint, somewhat...I'm not yet ready to declare victory on inflation. And so I wouldn't dial it back all the way" to neutral – AP interview published Sep 26.  
  •  
  • 0900ET – Hammack (’24) welcome remarks at Fed’s Minorities in Banking forum (no text)
  • 1005ET – Musalem (’25) welcome remarks at Community Banking conf (text only)
  • 1100ET – Bowman (voter) speech at Community Banking conf. (text only)
  • 1215ET – Barkin (‘25) gives speech on “Why Not Declare Victory?” (text + Q&A)