October 11, 2024 06:49 GMT
STIR: 35bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End
STIR
The post-SONIA settlement rally in core global FI has had a slightly dovish impact on GBP STIRs.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed to 1bp more dovish, showing 22bp of cuts for November, 35bp of cuts through year-end and 98bp of cuts through June.
- SONIA futures last 0.25 to 5.0 firmer.
- This morning’s monthly economic activity data had no real impact on markets, given how close to expectations the GDP prints were. There shouldn’t be any impact on monetary policy either.
- Looking forwards, expect fiscal speculation to continue to dominate local headlines, while U.S. PPI data headlines the macro calendar ahead of the weekend.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Nov-24
4.729
-22.1
Dec-24
4.597
-35.3
Feb-25
4.382
-56.8
Mar-25
4.239
-71.1
May-25
4.059
-89.1
Jun-25
3.971
-97.9
Aug-25
3.851
-109.9
Sep-25
3.802
-114.8
Nov-25
3.739
-121.1
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