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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Fund implied rates have increased modesty overnight (0.5-2bp) but hold most of yesterday’s decline following yesterday’s PPI inflation.
- There was relatively little move in September meeting pricing (the 40bp of cuts currently are just 0.5bp higher than pre-PPI) but declines were increasingly large for subsequent meetings including a shift back to fully pricing 75bp of cuts over the Sept/Nov meetings.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 40bp Sep, 75bp Nov, 108bp Dec, 133bp Jan and building to 194bp June.
- CPI clearly headlines today’s docket. Next Fedspeak is scheduled for tomorrow (a hawkish Musalem, ’25 voter) but there has been a variety of unscheduled appearances since payrolls earlier this month.
- Bostic (’24 voter) sounded more cautious yesterday: Asked whether the Fed is close to lowering interest rates said "Yes, it's coming. I want to see a little more data." “The balance of risks is kind of equilibrating," and "there's still enough momentum in the economy that we can see slowing and not see labor markets deteriorate to a level of considerable concern”. Don’t want to go from a hot to a freezing cold labor market. “I'm hopeful that in the next several months we'll be at a place where we have an economy that's pretty much fully normalized."
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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