September 20, 2024 06:46 GMT
STIR: 41bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End, Mann Due
STIR
BoE-dated OIS still more than fully discounts a 25bp cut for the next MPC, with ~41bp of cuts priced through year-end and ~123bp of cuts showing through June ’25.
- Most of the hawkish adjustment to yesterday’s BoE decision remains intact.
- SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0.
- Retail sales data was firmer-than-expected, although our macro team notes that the volatile nature of the data shouldn’t impact the BoE, with unanimous expectations for the next rate cut to come in November.
- Elsewhere, the government’s downbeat assessment of the fiscal outlook weighed on the latest GfK consumer confidence reading.
- BoE’s Mann will speak at 09:30, we will provide further colour on her appearance shortly.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Nov-24
4.683
-26.7
Dec-24
4.542
-40.8
Feb-25
4.294
-65.6
Mar-25
4.072
-87.8
May-25
3.847
-110.3
Jun-25
3.716
-123.4
Aug-25
3.575
-137.5
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