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STIR: A Little Over 100bp Of Fed Cuts To June Ahead Of Labor Data

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates for meetings out to mid-2025 are little changed overnight.
  • The recent steepening bias is intact, with the Dec implied rate at the mid-to-higher end of the range over the past two weeks but the Jun’25 rate only slightly below recent highs.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 59bp Jan and 104bp June.
  • Today’s data highlights are centered around labor releases with the JOLTS report for September and the labor differential within the Conference Board consumer survey after further deterioration back in Sept.
  • The FOMC is in media blackout before the Nov 6-7 meeting. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates for meetings out to mid-2025 are little changed overnight.
  • The recent steepening bias is intact, with the Dec implied rate at the mid-to-higher end of the range over the past two weeks but the Jun’25 rate only slightly below recent highs.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 59bp Jan and 104bp June.
  • Today’s data highlights are centered around labor releases with the JOLTS report for September and the labor differential within the Conference Board consumer survey after further deterioration back in Sept.
  • The FOMC is in media blackout before the Nov 6-7 meeting.