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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Ahead of today's US Non-Farm Payrolls release, STIR markets in the $-bloc, except for Australia, are trading softer compared to last week.
- Year-end official rate expectations have been revised downward by 13bps in the US, 9bps in Canada, and 6bps in New Zealand. Mid-week, the Bank of Canada lowered its official rate to 4.25%.
- Australia stood out as the exception, with year-end rate expectations rising by 5bps.
- Yesterday, RBA Governor Bullock maintained her stance that it is "premature to be thinking about rate cuts," despite Treasurer Chalmers remarking that current rates are "smashing the economy"— a comment she did not address.
- Bullock's tone was consistent with the August 6 meeting, reiterating that inflation is moderating more slowly than anticipated, and the RBA’s priority remains reducing inflation while preserving job gains, as inflation disproportionately affects low-income households.
- The December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: 4.27%, -106bps (FOMC); 3.67%, -58bps (BoC); 4.14%, -18bps (RBA); and 4.48%, -77bps (RBNZ).
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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