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STIR: Bostic Helps Pare Rally Seen On Mixed Data

STIR
  • The above headlines from Bostic on being open to a November pause have seen a swift increase in Fed Funds implied rates although they’re tempered in particular by the reference to his dot having only one cut over the next two meetings anyway.
  • It helps limit the net dovish impact on near-term rates from earlier data that had some notable caveats, with a sharp increase in initial jobless claims (probably a little over half from Hurricane Helene impact) vs a beat for core CPI that seems less likely to be reflected in core PCE.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 116bp June.
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  • The above headlines from Bostic on being open to a November pause have seen a swift increase in Fed Funds implied rates although they’re tempered in particular by the reference to his dot having only one cut over the next two meetings anyway.
  • It helps limit the net dovish impact on near-term rates from earlier data that had some notable caveats, with a sharp increase in initial jobless claims (probably a little over half from Hurricane Helene impact) vs a beat for core CPI that seems less likely to be reflected in core PCE.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 21.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 116bp June.