MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 14

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Market Strong In November - MOFCOM

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY309 Bln via OMO Thursday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY328.2 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1966 Thurs; +0.94% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1966 THURS VS 7.1991

MNI: EUROZONE FLASH Q3 GDP +0.4% Q/Q, +0.9% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE SEP IP -2% M/M, -2.8% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN OCT HICP +0.4% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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STIR: Close To 110bp Of Cuts To Year-End As Soft JOLTS Report Still Weighs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold a little above yesterday’s post-JOLTS lows but the report still clearly weighs (see table) ahead of multiple labor releases and the ISM services as a prelude to tomorrow’s NFP report.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 36bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 109bp Dec, 141bp Jan and 207bp June.
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) told Reuters late yesterday that the Fed needs to cut rates to keep the labor market healthy but it’s now down to incoming economic data to determine by how much. She didn’t know how large a rate cut was currently needed.
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book seemed to be a downgrade from the last edition in July when it came to the labor market. It had described employment as having risen at a "slight pace" (that's now "flat to up slightly") with "modest to moderate" wage growth (that's now "a modest pace"). From yesterday: “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job."
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold a little above yesterday’s post-JOLTS lows but the report still clearly weighs (see table) ahead of multiple labor releases and the ISM services as a prelude to tomorrow’s NFP report.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 36bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 109bp Dec, 141bp Jan and 207bp June.
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) told Reuters late yesterday that the Fed needs to cut rates to keep the labor market healthy but it’s now down to incoming economic data to determine by how much. She didn’t know how large a rate cut was currently needed.
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book seemed to be a downgrade from the last edition in July when it came to the labor market. It had described employment as having risen at a "slight pace" (that's now "flat to up slightly") with "modest to moderate" wage growth (that's now "a modest pace"). From yesterday: “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job."