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STIR: Close To 110bp Of Cuts To Year-End As Soft JOLTS Report Still Weighs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold a little above yesterday’s post-JOLTS lows but the report still clearly weighs (see table) ahead of multiple labor releases and the ISM services as a prelude to tomorrow’s NFP report.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 36bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 109bp Dec, 141bp Jan and 207bp June.
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) told Reuters late yesterday that the Fed needs to cut rates to keep the labor market healthy but it’s now down to incoming economic data to determine by how much. She didn’t know how large a rate cut was currently needed.
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book seemed to be a downgrade from the last edition in July when it came to the labor market. It had described employment as having risen at a "slight pace" (that's now "flat to up slightly") with "modest to moderate" wage growth (that's now "a modest pace"). From yesterday: “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job."
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  • Fed Funds implied rates hold a little above yesterday’s post-JOLTS lows but the report still clearly weighs (see table) ahead of multiple labor releases and the ISM services as a prelude to tomorrow’s NFP report.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 36bp Sep, 72bp Nov, 109bp Dec, 141bp Jan and 207bp June.
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) told Reuters late yesterday that the Fed needs to cut rates to keep the labor market healthy but it’s now down to incoming economic data to determine by how much. She didn’t know how large a rate cut was currently needed.
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book seemed to be a downgrade from the last edition in July when it came to the labor market. It had described employment as having risen at a "slight pace" (that's now "flat to up slightly") with "modest to moderate" wage growth (that's now "a modest pace"). From yesterday: “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job."