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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close, holding with a little less than 100bp of cuts over the three meetings to year-end.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 33bp Sep, 63bp Nov, 96bp Dec, 120bp Jan.
- There have been further unscheduled Fed appearances since Friday, with both Daly and Kashkari pushing back on 50bp cut expectations.
- Kashkari (non-voter), recently one of the most hawkish on the FOMC, in an interview with WSJ released today from Fri: "The balance of risks has shifted, so the debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have”.
- From the WSJ’s write-up: “Still, Kashkari said he didn't see any reason to lower interest rates in increments of larger than a quarter percentage point because layoffs remain low and claims for unemployment benefits don't suggest a notable deterioration.”
- Daly (’24 voter) in an interview with the FT, released overnight from Thu: Recent US economic data have given [SF Fed’s] Daly “more confidence” that inflation is under control and it’s time to consider adjusting benchmark borrowing costs, but the economy is “not in an urgent place,” […] Daly urged a “prudent” approach to policy, pushing back against concerns about the risk of a sharp slowdown in the US economy.
- Ahead, Gov. Waller (voter) gives welcoming remarks at a 2024 summer workshop at 0915ET with the topic and style of appearance likely limiting market-moving headlines.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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