MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Dovish Move In Fed Pricing, Higher Claims Outweighs Hot CPI

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Fed funds futures now price 23bp of cuts for November, 46bp of cuts through December, 85bp of cuts through March and 112.5bp of cuts through June.

  • This compares to 20.5bp, 43.5bp, 82bp and 109.5bp ahead of the CPI & weekly jobless claims readings.
  • Markets were subjected to two-way swings in the wake of the higher-than-expected CPI and weekly jobless claims prints, initially trading hawkish vs. pre-release levels before a dovish move asserted itself.
  • The net reaction to this mix of data underscores the market’s increased sensitivity to labour market readings following the Fed’s switch in focus in recent months.
  • Our macro team’s initial calculations suggest that Hurricane Helene could have biased the weekly jobless claims figure higher by around 15k or so, although that is dependent on what was already factored into consensus.
  • Meanwhile, they also caution that the upside surprise in CPI was driven by multiple factors - which may not be translated into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, potentially mitigating the upside surprise from a market perspective
164 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Fed funds futures now price 23bp of cuts for November, 46bp of cuts through December, 85bp of cuts through March and 112.5bp of cuts through June.

  • This compares to 20.5bp, 43.5bp, 82bp and 109.5bp ahead of the CPI & weekly jobless claims readings.
  • Markets were subjected to two-way swings in the wake of the higher-than-expected CPI and weekly jobless claims prints, initially trading hawkish vs. pre-release levels before a dovish move asserted itself.
  • The net reaction to this mix of data underscores the market’s increased sensitivity to labour market readings following the Fed’s switch in focus in recent months.
  • Our macro team’s initial calculations suggest that Hurricane Helene could have biased the weekly jobless claims figure higher by around 15k or so, although that is dependent on what was already factored into consensus.
  • Meanwhile, they also caution that the upside surprise in CPI was driven by multiple factors - which may not be translated into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, potentially mitigating the upside surprise from a market perspective