STIR: Euribor Futures Retest Session Highs Alongside Bunds

 Euribor red, green and blue packs register fresh session highs alongside Bunds, with futures currently +0.5 to +5.5 ticks through the blues at typing.

• ECB-dated OIS contracts show 63bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024 at typing.
• Focus remains on any new policy signals at the ECB’s meeting on Thursday, where a 25bps cut is unanimously expected.
• MNI’s baseline scenario sees President Lagarde steering clear of providing any strong policy signals for the July or September meetings, but indicating a willingness to ease further provided economic conditions allow.
• A dovish outcome would see Lagarde note that there will be significantly more data available by the September meeting (mirroring the language used at the April meeting)
• On the other hand, any framing of the (assumed) June cut as an ‘insurance cut’ or a reversal of last year’s ‘insurance hike’ would be a hawkish development.
• See here for our full preview.
• Immediate focus remains on today’s US JOLTS data, while tomorrow sees the May services PMIs released across the Eurozone (final prints for Germany, France and the Eurozone).