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STIR: Fed Funds Rally On More Favorable Harris Weekend Polls

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates reflect broader themes seen across US fixed income today owing to Democrat presidential candidate Harris faring better in weekend polls, but with the result still deemed extremely tight.
  • It sees very near-term meeting implications little changed but mid-2025 rates some 4bps lower.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 101bp June.
  • Despite the decline, mid-2025 implied rates still hold a sizeable paring of the initial drop seen Friday’s weak payrolls report, with some assuming large weather impacts at play along with general data quality concerns after the lowest initial response rate since 1991.
  • Political factors are likely in the driving seat in the near-term ahead of tomorrow’s election with today’s data limited to factory orders/finalized durable goods for September. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates reflect broader themes seen across US fixed income today owing to Democrat presidential candidate Harris faring better in weekend polls, but with the result still deemed extremely tight.
  • It sees very near-term meeting implications little changed but mid-2025 rates some 4bps lower.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 101bp June.
  • Despite the decline, mid-2025 implied rates still hold a sizeable paring of the initial drop seen Friday’s weak payrolls report, with some assuming large weather impacts at play along with general data quality concerns after the lowest initial response rate since 1991.
  • Political factors are likely in the driving seat in the near-term ahead of tomorrow’s election with today’s data limited to factory orders/finalized durable goods for September.