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STIR: Fed Rate Path Drifts Higher But Weak Confidence Still Weighs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted 1-2bps off yesterday’s low although it only pares the latest leg of yesterday’s decline with most of the impact from a soft Conference Board consumer survey, including its labor differential, still reflected.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 40.5bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 113bp Jan and 181bp June.
  • Today sees rare Fedspeak from Gov. Kugler (voter) on the economic outlook with both prepared remarks and moderated Q&A, although it’s late at 1600ET.
  • She last spoke Jul 16 (Fed doesn’t want to see labor market cool too much, watching data incredibly closely given it can weaken fast) and before that Jun 18 (likely appropriate to cut rates later this year). We see her at the dovish end of the spectrum and will watch for anything that updates that view.  
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted 1-2bps off yesterday’s low although it only pares the latest leg of yesterday’s decline with most of the impact from a soft Conference Board consumer survey, including its labor differential, still reflected.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 40.5bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 113bp Jan and 181bp June.
  • Today sees rare Fedspeak from Gov. Kugler (voter) on the economic outlook with both prepared remarks and moderated Q&A, although it’s late at 1600ET.
  • She last spoke Jul 16 (Fed doesn’t want to see labor market cool too much, watching data incredibly closely given it can weaken fast) and before that Jun 18 (likely appropriate to cut rates later this year). We see her at the dovish end of the spectrum and will watch for anything that updates that view.