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STIR: Fed Rate Path Eases Away From Recent Highs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back a little further from highs earlier this week but remain at the high end of recent ranges.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 59bp Jan and 110bp June.
  • Today’s docket sees focus on weekly jobless claims, with further potential hurricane distortion and continuing claims covering a payrolls reference week, before flash PMIs.
  • Scheduled Fedspeak is limited to Hammack (’24 voter) giving welcome remarks (no text). Only Collins (’25) is set to speak tomorrow in a fireside chat (no text) for the last two days before the FOMC blackout starts Sat 12:00am ET.  
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book, watched with increasing focus on anecdotal evidence, overall didn't appear to change the narrative of slower economic growth depicted in September's collection of regional anecdotes, but job gains appear to have been marginally firmer while inflation pressures may have been marginally softer. With few dramatic changes over the preceding 6 weeks it is unlikely to be a game-changer compared with the unexpectedly weak September edition.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back a little further from highs earlier this week but remain at the high end of recent ranges.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 59bp Jan and 110bp June.
  • Today’s docket sees focus on weekly jobless claims, with further potential hurricane distortion and continuing claims covering a payrolls reference week, before flash PMIs.
  • Scheduled Fedspeak is limited to Hammack (’24 voter) giving welcome remarks (no text). Only Collins (’25) is set to speak tomorrow in a fireside chat (no text) for the last two days before the FOMC blackout starts Sat 12:00am ET.  
  • Yesterday’s Beige Book, watched with increasing focus on anecdotal evidence, overall didn't appear to change the narrative of slower economic growth depicted in September's collection of regional anecdotes, but job gains appear to have been marginally firmer while inflation pressures may have been marginally softer. With few dramatic changes over the preceding 6 weeks it is unlikely to be a game-changer compared with the unexpectedly weak September edition.