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STIR: Fed Rate Path Tilts Away From 100bp Of Cuts For 2024

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pulled back off highs seen after the U.Mich and state labor data but hold sizeable increases, not so much for September but increasingly so further out. 
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 32bp Sep, 61bp Nov, 93bp Dec and 116bp Jan.  
  • The 93bp of cuts for 2024 comes from an implied rate that is back at highs seen after yesterday’s stronger than expected retail sales and jobless claims data. 
  • U.Mich inflation expectations were stronger than expected as they held steady and the labor components showed no sign of additional deterioration, whilst some of the state labor data appeared modestly hawkish at first glance. 

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