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STIR: Fed Rates Drift Higher, Headlines In Driving Seat Today

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for the Nov FOMC meeting but otherwise have lifted 1-2bps from Dec through to end-2025, fading BoJ’s Ueda acknowledging fading upside risks to prices.
  • Cumulative cuts from assumed 4.83% effective: 36bp Nov, 72bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 175bp June.
  • Only Philly Fed’s Harker (non-voter) is scheduled to speak today, at 1400ET, in the first day out of the FOMC blackout.
  • There is scope for unscheduled speakers although they can only have so much impact with a continued data dependent stance and a particularly thin data docket. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for the Nov FOMC meeting but otherwise have lifted 1-2bps from Dec through to end-2025, fading BoJ’s Ueda acknowledging fading upside risks to prices.
  • Cumulative cuts from assumed 4.83% effective: 36bp Nov, 72bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 175bp June.
  • Only Philly Fed’s Harker (non-voter) is scheduled to speak today, at 1400ET, in the first day out of the FOMC blackout.
  • There is scope for unscheduled speakers although they can only have so much impact with a continued data dependent stance and a particularly thin data docket.