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STIR: Fed Rates Unchanged For Tomorrow But Firmly Steeper Thereafter

STIR
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  • Former President Trump being projected to win the election hasn’t altered expectations for tomorrow’s FOMC decision (24.5bp cut priced) but the steepening bias is clearly seen beyond further out.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 42bp Dec (vs 44bp yday close), 54bp Jan (59bp) and 91bp June (99bp).
  • See the earlier STIR post for the clear underperformance of US rates compared to their European counterparts where trade policy implications weighs on growth prospects, along with the continued climb in US terminal rate expectations.
  • A reminder of the MNI Fed Preview for tomorrow’s decision, found here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Nov2024_With_Analysts_d4a81c3019.pdf 
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  • Former President Trump being projected to win the election hasn’t altered expectations for tomorrow’s FOMC decision (24.5bp cut priced) but the steepening bias is clearly seen beyond further out.  
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 42bp Dec (vs 44bp yday close), 54bp Jan (59bp) and 91bp June (99bp).
  • See the earlier STIR post for the clear underperformance of US rates compared to their European counterparts where trade policy implications weighs on growth prospects, along with the continued climb in US terminal rate expectations.
  • A reminder of the MNI Fed Preview for tomorrow’s decision, found here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Nov2024_With_Analysts_d4a81c3019.pdf