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STIR FUTURES: Rate Cut Pricing Firms, ex-Fed's Dudley Sees Case For 50bps Cut

STIR FUTURES
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • Tsys futures are reacting little to ex-fed's Dudley's comments around seeing a case for 50bps of cuts at the meeting next week.
  • Pricing for a 50bps cut has rallied post the NY close following a block trade in 30-day Fed fund futures, with the market now pricing in about 45% cut of a 50bps cut up from about 20% chance heading into NY close overnight.
  • Fed Funds pricing has firmed 5-10bps across meetings out until April 2025. 

Chart: Fed Funds Futures Today vs Sep 12 Open Levels

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  • Tsys futures are reacting little to ex-fed's Dudley's comments around seeing a case for 50bps of cuts at the meeting next week.
  • Pricing for a 50bps cut has rallied post the NY close following a block trade in 30-day Fed fund futures, with the market now pricing in about 45% cut of a 50bps cut up from about 20% chance heading into NY close overnight.
  • Fed Funds pricing has firmed 5-10bps across meetings out until April 2025. 

Chart: Fed Funds Futures Today vs Sep 12 Open Levels