CANADA OCT CPI 2.0% YOY IN LINE W/ FORECASTS, PRIOR 1.6%

CORRECTED-MNI: Gas Base Effect Pulls Canada CPI Back Up To 2%

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Policy Support In 2025: NDRC

MNI CBRT WATCH: Rates To Hold As Inflation Forecast Raised

MNI NBH WATCH: Rates Held At 6.5% As Expected

MNI BRIEF: NDRC Considering Trade-in Scheme Next Steps

MNI: US REDBOOK: NOV STORE SALES +4.9% V YR AGO MO

MNI: US OCT HOUSING STARTS 1.311M; PERMITS 1.416M

MNI: CANADA OCT CPI INFLATION +0.4% M/M, +2.0% YY

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Geopol Risk Shifts Fed Path Lower

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off earlier lows but still sit firmly lower in geopolitical spillover from Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time.
  • Implied rates are 1bp lower for Dec, 2.5bp lower for Mar and 4bp lower for June. Near-term implied rates still hold the bulk of last week's increase on hawkish Fedspeak but mid-2025 implied rates are now back at post-CPI levels.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 40bp Mar and 62p June.
  • Today sees Schmid (’25 voter, hawk) speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 1310ET.
  • His comments last week were limited, noting the depth of eventual Fed cutting remains undetermined. Expect greater focus tomorrow on both the near-term outlook after a typically dovish Governor Kugler talked on pausing prospects last week as well as continued debate over how restrictive policy currently is along with longer-term neutral rate estimates.
  • Before then, expect greater focus than usual on the state-level payrolls and unemployment data at 1000ET after the surprisingly weak October payrolls report and its potential storm disruption.  
183 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off earlier lows but still sit firmly lower in geopolitical spillover from Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory with ATACMS for the first time.
  • Implied rates are 1bp lower for Dec, 2.5bp lower for Mar and 4bp lower for June. Near-term implied rates still hold the bulk of last week's increase on hawkish Fedspeak but mid-2025 implied rates are now back at post-CPI levels.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 16bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 40bp Mar and 62p June.
  • Today sees Schmid (’25 voter, hawk) speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 1310ET.
  • His comments last week were limited, noting the depth of eventual Fed cutting remains undetermined. Expect greater focus tomorrow on both the near-term outlook after a typically dovish Governor Kugler talked on pausing prospects last week as well as continued debate over how restrictive policy currently is along with longer-term neutral rate estimates.
  • Before then, expect greater focus than usual on the state-level payrolls and unemployment data at 1000ET after the surprisingly weak October payrolls report and its potential storm disruption.