October 04, 2024 06:44 GMT
STIR: Hawkish Adjustments In GBP STIRs, 42bp Of Cuts Showing Through Year-End
STIR
Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs, seemingly alongside a downtick Bunds.
- This comes after BoE Governor Bailey drove dovish repricing on Thursday.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~25bp of cuts for November, ~42bp of cuts through December and ~119bp of easing through June '25.
- Contracts little changed to 4bp less dovish vs. Thursday's closing levels.
- SONIA futures little changed to -4.0.
- Comments from BoE chief economist Pill (08:55 London) headline today’s UK calendar.
- There will be particular focus on whether the recent hawkish dissenter will follow Governor Bailey in turning more dovish, further lowering the bar for back-to-back rate cuts into year-end.
- U.S. NFP presents the major scheduled macro risk event this afternoon.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Nov-24
4.702
-24.8
Dec-24
4.533
-41.8
Feb-25
4.288
-66.2
Mar-25
4.094
-85.7
May-25
3.870
-108.0
Jun-25
3.760
-119.0
Aug-25
3.624
-132.6
Sep-25
3.571
-137.9
Nov-25
3.500
-145.0
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