STIR: Hawkish Kazaks Supports Sep ECB Cut, 66bps Of Easing Priced Through ‘24

Kazaks became the latest ECB Governing Council member to publicly lean towards a September rate cut.

• ECB-dated OIS continue to fully price a 25bp cut through that meeting.
• 66bps of cuts are priced through year-end.
• Kazaks, who usually leans hawkish, was “very much open for a discussion of yet another rate cut in September” but needed to see the September macroeconomic projections and August inflation data before cementing that case.
• Euribor futures are little changed as core FI recovers from post-settlement lows.
• Today’s regional calendar includes the ECB’s inflation expectations survey, though greater focus will be on Central Bank speakers (BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell) from Jackson Hole.
• ECB Chief Economist Lane will make a panel appearance at the same event this weekend.