US TSYS: /STIR: Higher Oil & Weaker EGBs Weigh

No respite for Tsys with continued post-ECB weakness in European peers and another uptick in crude oil futures applying pressure.

• TY futures through initial support at yesterday’s low as NY participants start to filter in. Contract at lows of 110-06+.
• Next downside level comes in at the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 15-Dec 6 bull cycle (110-02), which protects the Nov 20/21 low (109-20).
• Note that the recent move lower is still deemed corrective at this stage, with the bear trigger not seen until the Nov 15 base (109-02+).
• Tsy yields ~1.5bp higher across the curve.
• 2s10s 1.5bp off yesterday’s Dec high, last ~13bp.
• 5s30s 2bp off yesterday’s high, last 35.5bp. Yesterday’s high was the steepest level seen since late October.
• SOFR futures little changed to -3.0.
• Fed Funds futures pricing 24.5bp of cuts for next week, 30bp through January, 43bp through March, 59bp through June and 77.5bp through December ’25, little changed to 1bp less dovish on the day.
• Dec ’25 FOMC pricing briefly showed ~93bp of cuts following last week’s NFP release. The same measure based around 90bp following this week’s CPI data.
• Little of note on the U.S. calendar today. Export & import price metrics will help firm up final PCE projections,
• Fed remains in pre-meeting blackout.
• Focus to remain on cross-market cues and headline flow.