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STIR: Just Under 100bp Of Fed Cuts By Mid-2025 Ahead Of Payrolls

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed in London hours to leave the path out to Q1 close to where it was prior to yesterday’s mixed data.
  • There are greater increases further into 2025 though, likely a factor of spillover from the very large shift in BoE terminal rate expectations since Wednesday’s Budget plus US data pointing to real GDP Y/Y growth in Q4 some 50bps higher than the Fed’s median projection from September.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23.3bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 57bp Jan, 99bp June.
  • Re-upping the MNI Payrolls Preview ahead of today's release at 0830ET/12300BST: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2024_Preview_c885bc51dc.pdf
  • Dallas Fed’s Logan gives welcoming remarks today but shouldn’t touch on monetary policy, coming in the FOMC’s blackout period. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have firmed in London hours to leave the path out to Q1 close to where it was prior to yesterday’s mixed data.
  • There are greater increases further into 2025 though, likely a factor of spillover from the very large shift in BoE terminal rate expectations since Wednesday’s Budget plus US data pointing to real GDP Y/Y growth in Q4 some 50bps higher than the Fed’s median projection from September.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23.3bp Nov, 42bp Dec, 57bp Jan, 99bp June.
  • Re-upping the MNI Payrolls Preview ahead of today's release at 0830ET/12300BST: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2024_Preview_c885bc51dc.pdf
  • Dallas Fed’s Logan gives welcoming remarks today but shouldn’t touch on monetary policy, coming in the FOMC’s blackout period.