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STIR: Keeping To Circa 100bp Of Fed Cuts Over Three Meetings

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings are relatively little changed from Friday’s close as US desks filter in after Labor Day, up to only 1.5bp higher for meetings in mid-2025.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 32.5bp Sep, 65bp Nov, 99bp Dec, 127bp Jan and 187bp June.
  • There’s no Fedspeak scheduled today, and aside from tomorrow’s Beige Book we are currently only set to see Williams and Waller with post-payrolls reactions on Friday.
  • Today’s macro focus is on ISM manufacturing where we expect more attention than usual on employment after a particularly sharp 5.9pt decline to just 43.4 in July (but manufacturing only accounts for a small share at about 10% of payrolls).  

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