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STIR
A similar picture in SONIA futures when compared to the technical setup in Euribor, with some key resistance levels intact.
- Early August highs haven’t been breached in SFIH5, while January/February highs are intact further out the strip.
- Spill over from the market-implied path of Fed interest rates has been a driving factor through September.
- Also note that local labour market data didn’t hinder the odds of further BoE cuts, while UK GDP data came in on the soft side, further aiding the dovish move.
- As a result, just under 50bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end, despite the BoE’s lack of commitment to follow up rate cuts at this stage.
Fig.1: SONIA Mar & Dec '25 Futures (SFIH5 & SFIZ5)
source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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