STIR: Lagarde Downplays Need for Guidance, UK Data helps Euribor Stabilise

Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, just off lows after this morning’s marginally softer-than-expected UK labour market data.

• That was the only tier 1 data scheduled for today’s session, with participants now eyeing tomorrow’s US CPI and FOMC meeting.
• Yesterday afternoon, President Lagarde re-iterated the ECB’s data dependent stance for policy rates (see interview here).
• She noted that forward guidance was not appropriate given the high level of uncertainty evident at present.
• ECB-dated OIS show 31bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024 (little changed vs yesterday’s closing levels), with just over a 50% implied probability of the next 25bp cut priced through the September meeting (13bps priced).
• A reminder that the MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece noted that the Bank remains on course for a September rate cut, barring any data surprises (see here)
• Several ECB speakers are scheduled today, headlined by Chief Economist Lane at 1205BST.