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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI Credit Weekly: Le Vendredi Noir
STIR: Limited Reaction To ISM; Bunds Still Underperform Today
There was limited reaction from EGBs to the weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing report, with Bunds still 117 ticks lower today at 130.45.
- A close below 130.84 (the 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally) would strengthen a bearish technical threat in the contract following last week’s losses.
- 10-year peripheral and OAT spreads to Bunds remain notably tighter today though, following the unwind of last week’s pre-French election risk premium.
- The 10-year BTP/Bund spread trades around 150bps (~7bps tighter today), though tomorrow’s Q1 Italian fiscal data could prompt a reversal of today’s compression if the budget deficit shows a lack of improvement versus 2023’s levels.
- ECB rate cut expectations have pulled back a little today, with OIS showing 38bps of cuts through 2024 (vs 40bps this morning).
- We have flagged the potential for a small downward surprise in headline EZ HICP tomorrow, based on country-level data released thus far.
- That datapoint headline tomorrow’s regional macro calendar, alongside various ECB-speaker appearances at the annual Central Banking Forum in Sintra.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jul-24 | 3.650 | -0.6 |
Sep-24 | 3.487 | -16.9 |
Oct-24 | 3.429 | -22.8 |
Dec-24 | 3.278 | -37.8 |
Jan-25 | 3.206 | -45.0 |
Mar-25 | 3.085 | -57.1 |
Apr-25 | 3.016 | -64.0 |
Jun-25 | 2.906 | -75.1 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.