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STIR: Little Change In Fed Pricing On PPI, 44bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec

STIR
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No lasting impact on Fed funds futures from the PPI data, with softer-than-expected M/M data countered by the firmer Y/Y readings.

  • 21bp of cuts priced for November, 44bp showing through Dec, 87bp showing through March and 118bp of cuts priced through June, essentially unchanged vs. pre-data levels.
  • Our macro team suggest that the initial readthrough from the PPI into PCE looks somewhat hawkish, but some irregularities mean that further clarification is necessary.
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No lasting impact on Fed funds futures from the PPI data, with softer-than-expected M/M data countered by the firmer Y/Y readings.

  • 21bp of cuts priced for November, 44bp showing through Dec, 87bp showing through March and 118bp of cuts priced through June, essentially unchanged vs. pre-data levels.
  • Our macro team suggest that the initial readthrough from the PPI into PCE looks somewhat hawkish, but some irregularities mean that further clarification is necessary.