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STIR: Little Movement In GBP STIRs, Next Cut Fully Priced For March

STIR
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Little net change across GBP STIRs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 2.5bp of cuts for next month, 20bp through February, 27bp through March, 46bp through June and 65bp through December ’25, with the bulk of the hawkish post-Budget repricing still holding. Contracts little changed to ~1.5bp less dovish on the day.
  • SONIA futures -1.5 to +0.5.
  • Downticks in Bunds and Euribor futures providing some modest spill over early today.
  • Little in the way of market moving UK-specific news noted over the weekend.
  • CPI data headlines the UK calendar this week (Wednesday).
  • Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI at +2.2%Y/Y (BoE at +2.18%, prior +1.68%Y/Y).
  • The expected move higher in headline CPI is largely driven by utilities prices with the consumer “price cap” rising around 9.5% in the month.
  • Consensus expects the more important services CPI to print at +4.9%Y/Y in October (BoE at +4.98%, prior +4.94%Y/Y).
  • The biggest contributor to the downside surprise to services CPI in September was air fares (which are always volatile).
  • Expect our full preview of the release on Tuesday.

BoE Meeting

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Little net change across GBP STIRs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 2.5bp of cuts for next month, 20bp through February, 27bp through March, 46bp through June and 65bp through December ’25, with the bulk of the hawkish post-Budget repricing still holding. Contracts little changed to ~1.5bp less dovish on the day.
  • SONIA futures -1.5 to +0.5.
  • Downticks in Bunds and Euribor futures providing some modest spill over early today.
  • Little in the way of market moving UK-specific news noted over the weekend.
  • CPI data headlines the UK calendar this week (Wednesday).
  • Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI at +2.2%Y/Y (BoE at +2.18%, prior +1.68%Y/Y).
  • The expected move higher in headline CPI is largely driven by utilities prices with the consumer “price cap” rising around 9.5% in the month.
  • Consensus expects the more important services CPI to print at +4.9%Y/Y in October (BoE at +4.98%, prior +4.94%Y/Y).
  • The biggest contributor to the downside surprise to services CPI in September was air fares (which are always volatile).
  • Expect our full preview of the release on Tuesday.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less