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STIR: Marginal US Spillover From Dovish ECB Sources

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are marginally lower overnight, with the largest daily change for the Dec meeting (-1bp) in spillover from a dovish ECB sources piece from Reuters.
  • It leaves a rate path still holding a sizeable portion of yesterday’s push higher on strong US data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23bp Nov, 44bp Dec, 61bp Jan and 118bp June.
  • Ahead sees three separate Fed speakers scheduled in four appearances but the formats/topics likely limit monetary policy implications.
  • Bostic (’24) has also already spoken this week, seeing a single cut over the two meetings left this year, as has Gov. Waller (voter) who is set to talk on decentralized finance. Waller conveyed a more cautious tone on policy easing ahead compared with his Sept 20 post-50bp rate cut comments but wouldn’t be drawn on whether his call for "proceed[ing] with more caution" meant a move to quarterly cuts/a skip in November: "I don't think I used the word quarterly"... [those terms are] "in the eye of the beholder". That leaves Kashkari (non-voter) although he is hosting a panel. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are marginally lower overnight, with the largest daily change for the Dec meeting (-1bp) in spillover from a dovish ECB sources piece from Reuters.
  • It leaves a rate path still holding a sizeable portion of yesterday’s push higher on strong US data.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23bp Nov, 44bp Dec, 61bp Jan and 118bp June.
  • Ahead sees three separate Fed speakers scheduled in four appearances but the formats/topics likely limit monetary policy implications.
  • Bostic (’24) has also already spoken this week, seeing a single cut over the two meetings left this year, as has Gov. Waller (voter) who is set to talk on decentralized finance. Waller conveyed a more cautious tone on policy easing ahead compared with his Sept 20 post-50bp rate cut comments but wouldn’t be drawn on whether his call for "proceed[ing] with more caution" meant a move to quarterly cuts/a skip in November: "I don't think I used the word quarterly"... [those terms are] "in the eye of the beholder". That leaves Kashkari (non-voter) although he is hosting a panel.