FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Over 50bp Of Cuts Priced Through Year End As BoE Week Gets Underway

STIR
Foreign Exchange Technical AnalysisBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA futures flat to +3.5, with core global FI markets underpinned early today.

  • BoE-dated OIS little changed to ~2.5bp more dovish through June ’25, showing 5bp of cuts for this week’s MPC, ~34bp of cuts through November and ~52bp of easing through year-end.
  • Feedthrough from Fed pricing swings continue to dominate the GBP short end, although this week’s tier 1 UK risk events will see local drivers reassert themselves, with the latest BoE decision (Thursday) and CPI data (Wednesday) due.
  • Late on Friday J.P.Morgan recommended paying the belly of the Mar25/May25/Jun25 MPC OIS fly. Alternatively, they also noted that May ‘25/Jun ‘25 MPC OIS flatteners “look attractive.”
  • J.P.Morgan “acknowledge the market prices an additional easing ‘premia’ for the BoE’s quarterly forecast meetings, but think this looks excessive for May ‘25.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less
136 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

SONIA futures flat to +3.5, with core global FI markets underpinned early today.

  • BoE-dated OIS little changed to ~2.5bp more dovish through June ’25, showing 5bp of cuts for this week’s MPC, ~34bp of cuts through November and ~52bp of easing through year-end.
  • Feedthrough from Fed pricing swings continue to dominate the GBP short end, although this week’s tier 1 UK risk events will see local drivers reassert themselves, with the latest BoE decision (Thursday) and CPI data (Wednesday) due.
  • Late on Friday J.P.Morgan recommended paying the belly of the Mar25/May25/Jun25 MPC OIS fly. Alternatively, they also noted that May ‘25/Jun ‘25 MPC OIS flatteners “look attractive.”
  • J.P.Morgan “acknowledge the market prices an additional easing ‘premia’ for the BoE’s quarterly forecast meetings, but think this looks excessive for May ‘25.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less