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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Pricing Looks Past RBNZ’s 50bp Cut

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBA-dated OIS pricing remains 10-18bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings despite the RBNZ’s decision to cut 50bps today.

  • RBNZ-dated OIS softened by 6-10bps following today's RBNZ policy decision.
  • Before the decision, markets had priced in a 72% probability (43bps) of a 50bp rate cut, with 88bps of total easing expected by year-end and 127bps by February 2025. Those figures have now shifted to 98bps by year-end and 137bps by February (including today’s 50bps).
  • RBA-dated OIS year-end pricing is unchanged following today’s RBNZ decision, with a cumulative 8bps of easing priced by year-end.

 

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RBA-dated OIS pricing remains 10-18bps firmer than Friday’s closing levels for 2025 meetings despite the RBNZ’s decision to cut 50bps today.

  • RBNZ-dated OIS softened by 6-10bps following today's RBNZ policy decision.
  • Before the decision, markets had priced in a 72% probability (43bps) of a 50bp rate cut, with 88bps of total easing expected by year-end and 127bps by February 2025. Those figures have now shifted to 98bps by year-end and 137bps by February (including today’s 50bps).
  • RBA-dated OIS year-end pricing is unchanged following today’s RBNZ decision, with a cumulative 8bps of easing priced by year-end.

 

Keep reading...Show less