CANADA TO PUBLISH FISCAL UPDATE ON DEC. 16

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: US Near-Term Rate Path Mirrors Dot Plot In Wait-and-See Mode

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged overnight ahead of today’s Presidential Election along with a still heavily influential ISM Services report.
  • The path to mid-2025 can roughly be seen as consistent with the FOMC median dot plot with 50bp of cuts to year-end (mostly priced) before a quarterly pace in 2025.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 59bp Jan, 75bp Mar and 99bp June.
  • The expected pace of rate cuts then slows materially after mid-2025 compared to FOMC projections for a Fed Funds target range of 3.25-3.5% end-2025 and 2.75-3% in 2026 (200bp of cumulative cuts from today). SOFR implied terminal yields show less than 125bp of cuts for the cycle, little changed on the day and close to highs since early July. 
127 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged overnight ahead of today’s Presidential Election along with a still heavily influential ISM Services report.
  • The path to mid-2025 can roughly be seen as consistent with the FOMC median dot plot with 50bp of cuts to year-end (mostly priced) before a quarterly pace in 2025.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 59bp Jan, 75bp Mar and 99bp June.
  • The expected pace of rate cuts then slows materially after mid-2025 compared to FOMC projections for a Fed Funds target range of 3.25-3.5% end-2025 and 2.75-3% in 2026 (200bp of cumulative cuts from today). SOFR implied terminal yields show less than 125bp of cuts for the cycle, little changed on the day and close to highs since early July.