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STIR: US Spillover From Stronger European Data Reversed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have already reversed a brief lift off overnight lows on spillover from strong Eurozone GDP Q3 advance readings and German regional inflation.
  • They’re back little changed to almost 2bps lower on the day, near lows for the week but with mid-2025 implied rates still elevated ahead of ADP employment for Oct and the Q3 GDP/PCE advance report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 62bp Jan and 109bp June.
  • The Jun’25 implied rate of 3.74% has cooled from 3.82% highs on Monday but is still much higher than the 3.30% seen ahead of last month’s NFP report. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have already reversed a brief lift off overnight lows on spillover from strong Eurozone GDP Q3 advance readings and German regional inflation.
  • They’re back little changed to almost 2bps lower on the day, near lows for the week but with mid-2025 implied rates still elevated ahead of ADP employment for Oct and the Q3 GDP/PCE advance report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24.5bp Nov, 45bp Dec, 62bp Jan and 109bp June.
  • The Jun’25 implied rate of 3.74% has cooled from 3.82% highs on Monday but is still much higher than the 3.30% seen ahead of last month’s NFP report.